The plus-size market is dealing with the implications that weight-loss medications will change the fashion landscape for good. At the same time, runway representation for body types over a US size 14 is at a 5-year low, and storied sports stars, like Serena Williams, are changing the narrative on what it means to be in shape. Even the long-held idea of referring to clothing sizes as plus, straight, and mid, reinforces the ‘otherness’ of sizes at either end of the size curve, something that inherently separates body types in the mind of the consumer.
However, with the plus-size market poised for continued growth, fashion businesses must weigh up the brand and profit implications of still considering extended sizing as a separate ‘other’ category. Many retailers make the mistake of treating plus sizes as they would trend-based collections, with merchandising investments that do not match those of a core line category, and thereby limiting the potential choices available to their customers.
On the other hand, brands that do invest are quick to remove the sizes when the results don’t move the needle as fast as expected. It’s not as simple as adding more options; catering to the extended edges of your bell curve means having the right models, video, and imagery to support the customer experience.
As consumer advocacy for inclusivity grows, brands that can correctly assess demand for sizes up and down the size curve will gain a competitive edge. Discover how the market is evolving, the opportunities retailers could be missing out on, and how to calculate whether you should add extended or fringe sizes to your size curves.
The plus-size market’s unique challenges
Over the last few years, the rise of e-commerce has greatly impacted the plus-size clothing market, which has led to the significant reduction of brick-and-mortar plus-only stores in the US. Torrid Clothing shuttered 180 stores in June to invest in its online channels, following in the footsteps of Lane Bryant, Avenue, and Eloquii, as online platforms offer consumers faster access to a broader range of plus-size options and brands.
Even before the growing list of pharmaceutical companies, like Eli Lilly, began creating widely accessible GLP-1s, adding or maintaining a plus-size range from a retail perspective was met with caution. The decision to extend size curves is a data-driven process, and prior to intelligent retail platforms, brands were unable to measure size KPIs for performance. There was no true understanding of demand signals before embarking on this investment.
Size curves play a critical role in inventory management for clothing brands, and adding extended sizes without understanding true demand is a risk few can afford. This is because creating and producing garments for plus-size fashion lines is often more expensive; items above US size 18 will likely require more fabric, specialized patterns, and design aspects to ensure not just the right fit, but one that is form-flattering. As brands realise, adding extended sizes to an assortment isn’t as simple as a few more centimeters; it must meet the weight distribution of a person’s body to fit properly.
These costs can erode profit margins, especially when shoppers are unaware that the product even exists. Fashion advertising has historically relied on a straight-sized body (00-4) to sell products, with representation for extended ranges typically an afterthought.
The evolving landscape and key insights
Retailers should think twice before reducing their plus-size lines; the market is booming, and projected to reach USD 319,821 million in 2025, and 583,451 million by 2035 at a compound annual growth rate of 6.2%.
While Ozempic and other GLP-1s are having their influence on the high fashion and luxury industry, this is relegated to a specific demographic. GLP-1 users are predominantly women aged 20-50 years old in urban markets with higher disposable incomes. And while usage is projected to rise to 20% of 133 million obese Americans by 2035, this hasn’t stopped retail giants like Target, Nordstrom, and Walmart from widening their plus-size product lines.
Similarly, in the UK, the plus-size industry has experienced robust expansion with greater sensitivity to size inclusivity from retailers like ASOS Curve—which holds the majority of the market share at %14—Marks & Spencer, and New Look, while Australia’s City Chic label has recently reported a $14m profit turnaround, with sales rising by 8.4%.
The key plus-size market trends to keep on fashion’s radar include:
- North America dominates the plus-size clothing market with a revenue share of ~44%
- The other top countries driving the development are China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom
- Women dominate the market share at ~52% with more choices available
- By pricing, the mass market leads with the largest revenue share of ~68%
- The average woman’s size in the US is currently between 16-18 (or XL-XXL), compared to size 14 a decade ago
- Casual wear leads the plus-size clothing market due to high daily demand and work-from-home scenarios
- Activewear is one of the fastest-growing plus-size niches globally due to apparel brands investing in size-enhanced sportswear of superior quality
- 1XL and 2XL capture the largest percentage of plus-size clothing sales because they cover most average size ranges
When to extend your size range
So, to size up or to size down—or both? With market growth signalling the need for sizes on both ends of the size curve, brands and retailers have the opportunity to assess whether extending their size ranges is a profitable move.
To begin with, brands should be validated by their current core sizing with strong sales and low return rates. Next, digging into your data will prove you have a solid sizing foundation where your core audience is satisfied with your consistent fits. Consider:
- What does the sell-through percentage indicate for your current sizes?
- Do repeat purchases come from customers who shop for the same size across your product range?
- What percentage of your returns are size-related?
How to determine true demand for fringe sizes
“You have the opportunity to recognise when you can extend your size ranges and add larger or smaller sizes on either end of your curve,” says Michaela Wessels, CEO of Style Arcade. “With a clear mathematical guide, if you look at your ratio and the end sizes are more than 15% - in a typical 7 size ratio curve - of your total sales, then there’s an opportunity for you to add in a fringe size.”
“However, not all products will be popular in plus or petite fringe sizes,” she cautions. “When determining your plus-size assortment, use the data points that already live in your existing size range. If you’re analyzing performance by product, add extended attribution to bring the data to life. For example, the size demand by colour, by neckline, by silhouette, and by print type”.
Assess customer demand metrics
With the correct collection and analysis of customer data, you can determine whether your customer base is sending you direct signals to extend your sizing.
- The rate of sale when in stock: Consider the True Rate of Sale of your end sizes, that is, when all sizes were in stock, without discounts, and when the stock was new.
- Size-specific search data: Searches for specific sizes (e.g., “XXL jacket” or “size 4 petite”) on your site or sales channels.
- Return rates by size: High volume of returns for end sizes with return reasons that indicate the current size curve lacked more options.
- When the size curve broke: Analyze the first size in the curve that was sold out, and the week that this occurred, to determine demand for more sizes in that range.
- Size-based product requests or feedback: Volume of customer service inquiries or reviews mentioning size availability in online chat transcripts, social media commentary, and feedback forms.
- Waitlist/ Back in Stock sign-ups by size: High sign-ups for out-of-stock fringe sizes may indicate unmet demand.
Analyze test-and-learn metrics
Once you're ready to test the initial run of your extended sizing options, staying on top of sales and customer data will help you manage your new inventory and determine whether to continue with the fringe size investments.
- Fringe size Sell Thru Rate % (when in stock @ full price): Compare the fringe size sell-through to other sizes in the same category. Ensure you use the full price and in-stock rate so that demand signals are pure and accurate.
- Fringe size Return Rate %: Fit issues can be higher in the new sizes, so monitor the return rate, which should be no more than 20% above other sizes.
- Fringe size Repeat Purchase Rate %: The higher the rate, the better it is to indicate satisfaction and long-term potential.
- Fringe size Contribution Margin: This is the calculation of the selling price of the product, less the cost of goods sold, and the size-specific operational costs. It should equate to a positive contribution margin to determine its potential to your profit.
(Price Per Unit - COGS - Fringe Size Costs) = Contribution margin
Remember, if you choose to extend your size range, your customers need to know what’s available to them. The growth of the plus-size market is closely linked with the expansion of digital channels; consider investing not only in a wide range of models onsite and in marketing campaigns, but the ability to select the model preference on the catalogue and product pages online. Double-down on ensuring cohesive outfitting amongst your extended size range options, to encourage repeat purchases and basket size.
Fashion businesses now have the opportunity to hone in on appealing marketing, inclusive in-store layouts, and enhanced online store experiences with personalized recommendations and advanced size technology. The future success of plus-size lines for brands and retailers will be driven by better selection, inclusivity, comfort, and convenience.
Image credit: Eloquii
