Over the last few years, Black Friday has captured the discount-hungry consumer appetite to turn the Christmas shopping season into what has ostensibly become Black November.
Once a one-day US online retail sales event designed to lure house-bound gift shoppers on the day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday gradually popularized Cyber Monday (BFCM), for deeper discounts, eventually giving way to the momentum of the Cyber 5 (the days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday). And, as mentioned in our 2024 BCFM results wrap, data firms like Adobe Analytics also consider the longer Cyber Ten period (the Sunday before Black Friday until the Tuesday after Cyber Monday) when collating the shopping sales results.
Amazon, in fact, all but kicked off the sales frenzy last year on November 21 (and will do so again this year from November 20). However, for 2025, sales have clearly started to trend even earlier. Widespread discounting has begun to take place from October, with DTC brands, multibrand retailers, and department stores getting a head start on the season.
Net-a-porter rolled out a 30% off private sale from early November, as did Ssense (notably now covering all US duties and tariffs, with no additional charges on delivery). Similarly, MyTheresa, Proenza Schouler, and Faithfull the Brand, for example, all forged ahead with private sales for their loyal customers. Plenty more brands and retailers have followed suit with public offerings, incentives to sign up for sale access, and clearly communicating when sales will commence and what products will be on markdown.
So, with November the new December, what does this mean for the BFCM event itself?
Great expectations
Adobe Analytics is forecasting $253.4 billion in global spending from November 1 through to December 31, a 5.3% increase on last year, with Cyber Monday leading the 61 days with the highest forecasted spend, followed by Black Friday. In the US, the National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday sales will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% above last year’s holiday season, to exceed $1 trillion in sales for the holiday season for the first time.
In Europe, two-thirds of shoppers in Italy, France, and Spain are already searching for the best deals weeks in advance, based on data from fintech firm Scalapay. More than half of European consumers surveyed by McKinsey plan to start their holiday shopping early, prompting many retailers to launch promotions from late October and to evolve their offers, with 75% of online consumers buying on the basis of the cheapest price.
In Australia, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA), in partnership with Roy Morgan, expects consumers to spend a record $6.8 billion over the Black Friday-Cyber Monday weekend, while research from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute shows consumer sentiment surged in November by 12.8 per cent to become net positive for the first time in four years.
Playing the long game
This year’s Black November has come at an advantageous time for retailers and consumers alike. Fashion retail teams have had time to adapt their logistics and pricing strategies concerning the US tariffs and the de minimis rule, with customers having remained informed and engaged with their favourite brands, without concerns of checkout or customs surprises.
On the other hand, consumer confidence is climbing amid cost-of-living pressures as analysts expect competitive discounts this sale season, with retailers competing for dollars. Longer sales events will also assist consumers to split their purchases across a larger period, rather than relying on a single day for deals, which can also help encourage return customers during the same period.
BFCM becoming a month-long discount-shopping marathon could be considerably beneficial to fashion retailers, when comparing the chaos of high amounts of orders placed over just a few days. Extending the discounting period allows teams to better handle inventory operations and delivery logistics, while permitting more time to correct overstocks, move aged stock, and more accurately gauge if sales strategies need to be altered, in the event that sales goals aren’t being met.
How retailers can stay proactive, not reactive
Think you went too early? Sale FOMO climbing? Wondering when to hit the ‘furthers’ button?
“Having sale exit strategies as well as building in a Plan B (and Plan C) into your strategy is key,” says Style Arcade COO, Christine Reed, in her comprehensive guide to sale season. “I’ve definitely experienced lackluster campaigns coming out of Sale because of poor project planning around changeover.”
“To avoid last-minute scrambling, firstly, have contingency plans in place, and secondly, agree on the thresholds that will trigger these across the business, including the leadership team,” she said.
“This was something that really saved my sanity through critical Sale periods. Everyone knew what result would trigger Plan B:
- It would consist of time and result, e.g., after 2 weeks, if the top-line margin $ was cumulatively greater than X% behind targets.
- And the Plan B was either a ‘take a further’ discount or a second layer of discounts based on more aggressive markdown matrix rules.
- If you’re in a longer sale period, have a Plan C agreed and set the threshold for this to be implemented as well.”
And post-BFCM? “As much as everyone loves a discount, your loyal customers are craving newness so make sure you have your transition planned with complete drops and coordinated campaigns so this launches with impact,” says Chris.
Whether you’re planning for month-long markdowns or a BFCM discount burst, a compelling campaign backed by a data-driven product mix based on up-to-date customer preferences will set you up for a healthy sale season.
